Opinion: Lok Sabha Elections: Why A 2004-Like Scenario Is Unlikely

Four of the seven phases of India's general elections have been concluded, covering 380 seats and hundreds of candidates. Voters have sealed the mandates for roughly 70% of the total Lok Sabha seats. Both social and traditional media are abuzz with poll studies and analyses, though a common observation between them all is that the electoral contest, which initially appeared to be a done deal, has proved to be tighter than anticipated, with local factors taking precedence over national issues. 

A few analysts claim the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) may not come back to power. Some others predict that the party may not be able to touch 272 seats on its own, though with allies it might manage to cross the halfway mark. The slightly lower voter turnout has added to the anxiety, and supporters of both the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the INDIA bloc are perplexed. 

Pollsters Enjoy The Spotlight

Those conducting exit polls are having a field day as they are quizzed on social media and in TV interviews. However, given that it is unethical to speak about such details with elections still underway, most such pollsters have refrained from giving numbers. In fact, among them, many are those who give different answers in different interviews, adding to the confusion. A season of speculation and a battle of narratives, and amidst this, both the BJP and the Congress are trying to turn the public sentiment in their favour. Union Home Minister Amit Shah has already claimed that the BJP has won 270 seats till Phase 4. 

Elections are a lot about “mahaul”, that is, the public mood. India has many late deciders (25-30%, according to various surveys), and it's these voters who are swayed the most by the poll discourse. 

Why Ground Reports May Be Unreliable

People who believe that the BJP could lose this election often cite the example of 2004, when Atal Bihari Vajpayee, a public favourite, lost the mandate. Almost all exit polls had failed to gauge the public mood back then. If exit polls conducted through scientific techniques can go wrong, ground reports, based on unscientific sampling methods and gathered through ground feedback, can also be misleading. This is because such local reports usually tend to portray elections as ‘pitched battles', with supporters of each camp claiming that victory is theirs. This was seen even in the Madhya Pradesh state elections in 2023, which largely became a one-sided battle in the end. 

Read | Why Are Young Voters Staying Away From Elections? What Are Their Concerns?

Let's look at some data. In the 1999 general elections, the BJP won 182 seats with a 24% vote share, while the Congress won 114 with 28% votes. Though the gap between the vote shares of the two was just 4 percentage points (pp), the BJP still managed to form a government with the support of NDA allies. 

In the next general elections in 2004, the BJP won 138 seats (-44) with a 22% vote share (-2 pp), while the Congress won 145 (+31) with a 27% vote share (-1 pp). The Congress formed a government with its United Progressive Alliance (UPA) allies, and the BJP was handed a shock defeat despite its ‘India Shining' campaign. 

On Victory Margins

In 1999, the BJP's average lead on the seats it won was around 65,000 in terms of votes and 9 pp in terms of vote share. A victory margin of 10 pp is usually considered a close contest as a swing of only 5 pp is enough to reverse the mandate. The BJP victory in 1999 was thus not huge, which is partly why it lost to the Congress in the next general election. 

In 2019, the BJP's average winning margin for its victory seats was around 2.32 lakh votes and 20 pp in terms of vote share. A victory margin of 20 pp is considered a one-sided contest as a swing of more than 10 pp is needed to tilt the contest. Can this huge margin be reversed in 2024? 

Read | Opinion: Elections 2024: Why Brand Modi Is Unlikely To Fizzle Out Anytime Soon

In the 1984 elections, even though the Congress won 414 seats with an average vote share lead of 22 pp, it lost the subsequent elections in 1989. Notably, what also helped the party in 1984 was the deep sympathy generated after Indira Gandhi's assassination. That waned by the next election, and the Bofors scandal and corruption allegations against the Gandhi family cost it dear. 

So, there comes the question: is the political climate in India today similar to 1984 or 2004, or 2019? Well, the answer depends on which side of the fence you are on.

(Amitabh Tiwari is a political strategist and commentator. In his earlier avatar, he was a corporate and investment banker.)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author.

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Watch: 1st Look Of Stadium That'll Host India vs Pakistan T20 WC Game's Out

The newly-built Nassau County International Cricket Stadium, near New York, was launched on Wednesday with the sport's world body "excited" to conquer new territories through the T20 World Cup in June. The 34,000-capacity stadium, with infrastructure from the Las Vegas Formula 1 circuit and drop-in pitches prepared in Florida, will host the hotly-anticipated India-Pakistan clash on June 9, among its eight scheduled World Cup games.

The showpiece 20-over event will be co-hosted by the West Indies and the United States starting June 1 with New York, Florida and Dallas as venues.

The International Cricket Council (ICC) remains happy with the focus on the India-Pakistan clash and the Nassau project as part of bringing the game to the US.

"Yeah, absolutely! We can run that game anywhere and the interest in the fixture would be immense," Chris Tetley, the ICC's head of events, told reporters in a media roundtable.

NEW YORK CRICKET STADIUM IS READY FOR INDIA VS PAKISTAN.

- The capacity will be around 34,000.pic.twitter.com/cBtwY0hPU0

— Mufaddal Vohra (@mufaddal_vohra) May 15, 2024

"The news stories that we have seen and the media coverage in the US itself as well as amongst the cricket media around the world. I have not seen that before around an ICC event."

Tetley added: "We are really excited to bring the T20 World Cup cricket to the US and the opportunity that it presents to the sport and from what I can see there is an audience really waiting for us to come."

"Whenever a new stadium comes up, there are a lot of questions about the size. But the Nassau County ground is not a token-sized ground - it is 75 yards east west and 67 yards north south from the centre. It is similar to the size of Wankhede. The drainage facilities, too, will be world-class," Tetley was quoted as saying by Cricket Pakistan.

T20 Cricket will also feature as one of five new sports at the Los Angeles Olympics in 2028.

Making a cricket stadium in Nassau remained a huge challenge for the ICC, who got in Adelaide Oval curator Damian Hough for the job.Hough created the first drop-in pitch in Adelaide in 2013 and the latest strips at the Nassau County ground promise good cricket and balance between bat and ball.

"People shouldn't be concerned about drop-in pitches," said Hough.

"They are proven around the world, definitely in Australia. Some of the best cricket is played on drop-in pitches and are really successful."

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'PoK Will Be Merged With India If BJP Gets 400 Seats': Himanta Sarma

Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma spoke of a fresh to-do list if the NDA gets 400 seats in the ongoing general election. Countering the Opposition allegations of a change in Constitution, Mr Sarma said today that the focus would be on making Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir a part of India. His list also has two building projects -- temples at Krishna Janambhoomi in Mathura and in Varanasi's Gyanvapi. "You think Hindus would be satisfied with Ram Janmabhoomi alone," he questioned.

As for Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir, Mr Sarma, speaking at a rally in Jharkhand's Ramgarh, said it was a natural progression of the party's plans.

"When we crossed 300 (seats) we scrapped Article 370, built the Ayodhya temple. Once we cross 400, we will ensure that Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir merges with India," he said.

"The real game will start after crossing 400. For the last few days, slogans of freedom are being raised in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir. Crossing 400 means return of PoK to India," he added.   

"Agitation is taking place every day in PoK and people are protesting against Pakistan, holding the Indian flag," he added.

Mr Sarma said during Congress rule, no discussion was held in Parliament regarding Pakistan-occupied Kashmir.

"When the Congress government was in power, we were told that one Kashmir is in India and the other in Pakistan. It was never discussed in our Parliament that Pakistan has 'Occupied Kashmir,' it is actually ours," he added.

The issue of protests in Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir was highlighted by foreign minister S Jaishankar also.

People in PoK must be comparing their situation with those living in Jammu and Kashmir, in view of the progress there, he had said yesterday. The BJP has ascribed the high turnout in the election for the Srinagar Lok Sabha seat to the scrapping of Article 370.

From 14 per cent polling in 2019, the figure this time rose to 38 per cent, the highest since 1989.

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"Mom Says Thank You": Twinkle Reacts To Zeenat Aman's Post On Dimple Kapadia

Veteran actress Zeenat Aman dedicated a lovely post to Dimple Kapadia on Tuesday afternoon and tagged Twinkle Khanna, hoping that the actor turned writer would pass on the message to her mom, who is not on social media. Twinkle Khanna, who regularly entertains fans on Instagram with her quirky posts, indeed passed on Zeenat Aman's message to her mom. It so happened that Zeenat Aman on Tuesday, documented, in a post, how Dimple Kapadia stood by her during tough times. Hours later, Twinkle Khanna reshared the post and wrote, "What a lovely picture and Mom says thank you for your gracious words."

See Twinkle Khanna's post:

Now coming back to Zeenat Aman latest Instagram entry, sharing a black and white BTS picture from the film Chhailla Babu featuring herself, director Joy Mukherjee and Dimple Kapadia, the Satyam Shivam Sundaram actor wrote, "I can't recollect where this picture was taken, but it quite certainly had something to do with the film Chhailla Babu. Perhaps it's a bts shot from set. I say this because while the chairs scream "production", I'm in my own clothes not a costume. With me are the director of the film Joy Mukherjee and the effervescent Dimple Kapadia, who must have been visiting set as she was married to the lead actor."

Zeenat Aman then mentioned that Dimple Kapadia and she got their first breaks from the same person - Raj Kapoor. Zeenat Aman wrote, "Dimple and I both got big career breaks thanks to Raj Kapoor. She as a teenager, when she was cast in and as Bobby. Whereas I was able to deliver a blow to my "western image" thanks to SSS (Satyam Shivam Sundaram)."

She also hoped that Twinkle Khanna "will pass on" her love for Dimple Kadadia. She wrote, "This isn't a post about Dimple's talent though she has that in spades, it's about the little I saw of her character. During a very difficult phase in my life she was one of a mere handful of people who publicly stood by me. This despite the criticism and scrutiny of her own life that the decision invited! In those trying times she revealed to me a strength of character that I admire to date. I don't believe she is on Instagram, but perhaps @twinklerkhanna will pass on my love to her. Truly, a wave of appreciation washed over me when I found this picture some days ago."

This is what Zeenat Aman posted:

View this post on Instagram

A post shared by Zeenat Aman (@thezeenataman)

Zeenat Aman is known for her performances in movies like, Don, Satyam Shivam Sundaram and Hare Rama Hare Krishna.

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OpenAI Releases New GPT-4o, A Faster And Free AI Model For All Users

OpenAI on Monday released a higher performing and even more human-like version of the artificial intelligence technology that underpins its popular generative tool ChatGPT, making it free to all users.

The update to OpenAI's flagship product landed a day before Google is expected to make its own announcements about Gemini, the search engine giant's own AI tool that competes with ChatGPT head on.

"We're very, very excited to bring GPT-4o to all of our free users out there," Chief Technology Officer Mira Murati said at the highly anticipated launch event in San Francisco.

The new model GPT-4o -- the "O" stands for omni -- will be rolled out in OpenAI's products over the next few weeks, the company said, with paid customers having unlimited access to the tool.

The company said the model could generate content or understand commands in voice, text, or images.

"The new voice (and video) mode is the best computer interface I've ever used. It feels like AI from the movies," said OpenAI CEO Sam Altman in a blog post.

Altman has previously pointed to the Scarlett Johansson character in the movie "Her" as an inspiration for where he would like AI interactions to go.

"Talking to a computer has never felt really natural for me; now it does," he added.

Murati and engineers from OpenAI demonstrated the new powers of GPT-4o at the virtual event, posing challenges to the beefed-up version of the ChatGPT chatbot.

The demo mainly featured OpenAI staff members asking questions to the voiced ChatGPT, which responded with jokes and human-like banter.

The bot served as an interpreter from English to Italian, interpreted facial expressions and walked one user through a difficult algebra problem.

The company said that GPT-4o had the same powers as the previous version when it came to text, reasoning, and coding intelligence, and set new industry standards for multilingual conversations, audio, and vision.

In one demonstration, ChatGPT successfully interpreted an employee's surroundings through a smartphone camera, speaking in a friendly, feminine voice, not unlike the AI bot in the film "Her".

"Hmmm from what I can see it looks like you're in some kind of recording or production set-up with lights, tripods… you might be gearing up to shoot a video or make an announcement?" the ChatGPT bot said.

- 'Take our time' -

Anticipation was high in recent weeks that OpenAI would release an AI-amped version of an online search tool to compete with Google search engine, but on Friday Altman said this would not be the case.

Observers were also waiting for the launch of GPT-5, but Altman said last week that his company would "take our time on releases of major new models."

The event is just the latest episode in the AI arms race that has seen OpenAI-backer Microsoft surpass Apple as the world's biggest company by market capitalization.

OpenAI and Microsoft are in a heated rivalry with Google to be generative AI's major player, but Facebook-owner Meta and upstart Anthropic are also making big moves to compete.

All the companies are scrambling to come up with ways to cover generative AI's exorbitant costs, much of which goes to chip giant Nvidia and its powerful GPU semiconductors.

Making the new model available to all users may raise questions about OpenAI's path to monetization amid doubts that everyday users are ready to pay a subscription.

Until now, only lower performing versions of OpenAI or Google's chatbots were available to customers for free.

"We are a business and will find plenty of things to charge for," Altman said on his blog.

The AI makers are also feeling pressure from publishers and creators, who are demanding payment for any content used to train the models.

OpenAI has signed content partnerships with the Associated Press, the Financial Times and Axel Springer, but is also caught in a major lawsuit with The New York Times.

AI companies have also been confronted with separate lawsuits from artists, musicians, and authors in US courtrooms.

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)

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Job Applicant Gets Rejected For Telling Recruiter "You Wasted My Time"

Job hunting can be a stressful and frustrating process. Most working professionals looking for new jobs spend hours perfecting their resumes and job applications. They also go through multiple rounds of interviews, sometimes spread across days or weeks. However, this too doesn't guarantee a job. The whole process can be frustrating for the applicant and getting ghosted by the Human Resources (HR) team can further add to this frustration. Now, a job applicant recently shared an email they received, informing why they haven't been chosen for the job. 

"After weeks of consideration we have decided to go with another candidate who is better suited to our needs at this time," the email read. It further explained why the applicant was not selected. "It was noted during your interviews, you told both our recruiter and the hiring manager that "they wasted your time because they were late" and "you took time off from work just to hear a low ball offer and that we should have posted the salary range in the job description" We told you that we do this so people won't apply just for the money. After which you replied "what money? Thank you for your time and consideration," the email stated. 

Take a look below: 

legend pic.twitter.com/v5HnayxuK8

— non aesthetic things (@PicturesFoIder) May 8, 2024

The picture of the mail was shared on X (formerly Twitter) last week. Since then the post has accumulated more than 10 million views and several reactions. In the comments section, users supported the applicant and pointed out that the candidate was right in asking about the salary and that the company should have disclosed it in the beginning. Some users said that it was unprofessional on the part of the recruiter and the hiring manager to be late for the interview. Some argued that reviewing someone's application for weeks was nothing but evil. 

Also Read | Video Of Passenger's Heated Argument With Lufthansa Staff In Delhi Goes Viral, Airline Reacts

"I'm right there with this guy, businesses are wasting people's time instead of being honest and upfront," wrote one user. "Reviewing someone's application for weeks is nothing but evil, let him know if he qualifies or not without delaying the process," expressed another. 

"What is with these jobs thinking we are applying for fun? Who are these people they think are working for fun? If someone told them during the interview they don't care about the money they were LYING," commented a third. 

"The applicant dodged a bullet. That's obviously a bad company," said a fourth. 

"LOL I feel this so deeply, it's such a waste of time when salary isn't included, even if only a range. I remember going through a whole application process to find out the salary was 25k. Wrapped it up very shortly after the reveal, did so as politely as I could, but I feel it," shared one X user. 

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He Boarded 200 Flights In 110 Days, Stole Jewellery Worth Lakhs From Fliers

He boarded 200 flights last year and travelled thousands of kilometres in the country for over 100 days to execute robberies at airports, stealing valuables from several passengers in 2023.

The Delhi Police busted the new style of theft when a woman travelling from Hyderabad to Delhi claimed last month that jewellery worth Rs 7 lakh was stolen from her handbag. The cops received another complaint from a man from the US reporting that valuables worth Rs 20 lakh were stolen from his cabin bag. 

The police scanned several hours of footage from airports and arrested a man, Rajesh Kapoor.

The Modus Operandi

Rajesh Kapoor was arrested from Delhi's Paharganj after cops scanned CCTV footage from Delhi, Hyderabad, and Amritsar airports. The accused told the cops how he executed the crime for a year in one of the most highly secured areas in the country - airports - and managed to escape.

Deputy Commissioner of Delhi Police, Usha Rangrani, said the man targeted passengers who took connecting flights. For example, the woman travelling from Hyderabad to Delhi in April had to board a connecting Air India flight to the US from the IGI Airport in Delhi. 

Similarly, the US resident, Varjinderjit Singh, was travelling to Frankfurt, Germany from Amritsar and had a connecting flight from Delhi.

The senior cop said he chose the elderly and women passengers as his targets and used to observe their behaviour at the airport. He would follow them or slyly read the information on the baggage declaration slip to get more details about the valuables inside the bag. The police said they saw the man interact mostly at the boarding gate, and before that, he would observe the behaviour of his targets.

The police said the accused used to request the airline to change his seat so that he could be next to the passenger. Sometimes, it was a coincidence, but he mostly would give a reason to get his seat changed. 

The cops added that he would often sit near the passenger he would steal from and pretend to adjust the bags in the overhead section and steal jewellery and other valuables while other passengers were boarding the aircraft.

The phone number of the accused was obtained from the airlines; however, he entered a fake number at the time of booking to defraud them, and the phone number was registered in someone else's name, making sure he did not leave any evidence behind.

'A Guest House Owner'

Rajesh owns 'Ricky Deluxe', a guest house in Delhi Paharganj, close to the New Delhi Railway Station. The man lived on the third floor of the guest house, and the other floors were for the customers. The police said he had a money exchange business and, also owned a mobile repair shop in Delhi.

He stole valuables from bags of mostly female passengers in several operating from airports like Delhi, Chennai, Hyderabad, Chandigarh, Bangalore, Mumbai, and Amritsar. A large quantity of gold and silver jewellery was recovered from his house in Paharganj; however, he also revealed that on several occasions he sold the stolen jewellery to a jeweller named Sharad Jain in neighbouring Karol Bagh.

The thief who boarded flights used to steal in trains and "gained success," the police said. After getting caught, the man "went silent" and later decided to plan thefts at the airports.

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