European governments are stepping up military planning amid rising fears that Russia may move against NATO or European Union countries sooner than expected. Europe may not be fully prepared to respond to such a threat, a recent wargame has revealed.
The Baltic states, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia, are considered key risk areas.
The wargame, held in December by Germany's Die Welt newspaper and the German Wargaming Center at Helmut Schmidt University, simulated a Russian incursion into Lithuania in October 2026.
It involved former senior German and NATO officials, lawmakers, and security experts. Wargames are designed to identify gaps, risks, and possible outcomes without real fighting.
In the simulation, Russia used a claimed humanitarian crisis in its Kaliningrad exclave to justify taking over the Lithuanian city of Marijampole, a transport hub near the borders of Poland and Belarus. The narrative created enough uncertainty for the United States to avoid invoking NATO's Article 5.
The article says - if one NATO member is attacked, it is considered an attack on all members. Each member must take action to help defend the attacked country.
Germany hesitated in the exercise. Poland mobilised its forces but did not cross into Lithuania. A German brigade already deployed in Lithuania failed to intervene after Russian drones laid mines on roads leading from its base.
Marijampole, a town of about 35,000 people, is at an important road crossroads. It links the Via Baltica highway to Poland with the road from Belarus to Russia's Kaliningrad region. Lithuania has to keep this road open for Russian traffic under a treaty, which makes the town strategically important.
European defence officials say the risk of a Russian move has increased due to tensions with US President Donald Trump over Ukraine, Greenland, trade, and wider transatlantic issues.
Russia has also shifted to a war-driven economy. They have sharply increased weapons production, military recruitment and defence spending. Officials say this expansion goes well beyond the immediate needs of the war in Ukraine. They believe Russia is building the capacity to challenge NATO directly, as per The Wall Street Journal.
Earlier assessments in Berlin and other European capitals held that Russia would not be able to threaten NATO before 2029. That timeline is now under review. Many officials believe Russia could act much sooner, possibly before Europe completes its ongoing defence buildup.
“Our assessment is that Russia will be able to move large amounts of troops within one year,” the Netherlands Defense Minister Ruben Brekelmans said in an interview. “We see that they are already increasing their strategic inventories, and are expanding their presence and assets along the NATO borders.”
Russian President Vladimir Putin has spoken of restoring Russia's historic power. This raises concerns in countries that were once under Russian control. All three Baltic nations have been NATO and EU members for about two decades.
Since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, it has also increased hybrid attacks across Europe. In Poland, authorities have investigated several infrastructure-related incidents. In Ukraine, Russian strikes have repeatedly damaged the power grid, forcing civilians to adapt, especially during winter months.
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