Opinion: For Oil, Its Not 1973 Again But It Could Still Turn Ugly

History doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. On the eve of the 50th anniversary of the world's first oil crisis, the parallels between October 2023 and October 1973 are easy to draw: A surprise attack on Israel and oil prices rising. But the resemblance ends there.

The global economy isn't about to suffer another Arab oil embargo that would triple the price of a barrel of crude. Yet, it would be a mistake to downplay the chances that the world faces higher-for-longer oil prices. Half-Century of Oil Crisis | The cost of Arab Light crude, adjusted by inflation, is far from its peak

The situation is fluid, and for the oil market, everything depends about how Israel responds to Hamas, which launched the attack, and Iran, which typically pulls the strings of the Palestinian group. Still, we can draw a few tentative conclusions:

1) The crisis isn't a repeat of October 1973. Arab countries aren't attacking Israel in unison. Egypt, Jordan, Syria, Saudi Arabia and the rest of the Arab world are watching the events from the sidelines, not shaping them.

2) The oil market itself doesn't have any of the pre-October 1973 characteristics. Back then, oil demand was surging, and the world had exhausted all its spare production capacity. Today, consumption growth has moderated, and is likely to slow further as electric vehicles become a reality. In addition, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have significant spare capacity that they use to curb prices - if they choose to do so.

3) As importantly, today, OPEC nations aren't trying to boost prices beyond a few extra dollars. Riyadh would be content with oil prices rising another 10-20% higher, to just above $100 a barrel from $85 currently, rather than pushing them more than 100% higher to $200 a barrel. Just before the October 1973 oil embargo, OPEC nations unilaterally hiked the official petroleum prices by about 70%. Although the embargo is the element most vividly remembered of the crisis, the price hike was as crucial.

4) The fallout could yet have an impact on oil markets in 2023 and 2024. The most immediate impact could come if Israel concludes that Hamas acted on instructions of Tehran. In that scenario, oil prices could go much higher. In 2019, Iran demonstrated, via Yemeni proxies, that it's able to knock down a significant chunk of Saudi oil production capacity. It could do the same as retaliation if it finds itself under Israel or American attack.

5) Even if Israel doesn't immediately respond to Iran, the repercussions will likely affect Iranian oil production. Since late 2022, Washington has turned a blind eye to surging Iranian oil exports, bypassing American sanctions. The priority in Washington was an informal détente with Tehran. As a result, Iranian oil output has surged nearly 700,000 barrels a day this year - the second-largest source of incremental supply in 2023, behind only US shale. The White House is now likely to enforce the sanctions. That could be enough to push oil prices to $100 a barrel, and potentially beyond.

6) Russia will benefit from any Middle East oil crisis. If Washington enforces sanctions against Iran, it could create space for Russia's own sanctioned barrels to both win market share and achieve higher prices. One of the reasons why the White House turned a blind eye on Iranian oil exports is because it hurt Russia. In turn, Venezuela could also benefit, with the White House relaxing sanctions to ease market pressure.

7) The Saudi-Israeli diplomatic deal, which many had penciled in for early-to-mid 2024, is a casualty. Even if Riyadh is likely furious with Hamas, it's difficult to see how Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman would be able to sell the deal domestically. That, in turn, removes the potential for Saudi Arabia pumping more oil to help passage of the deal in Washington. The other victim of the Hamas-Israeli war is the Saudi-Iranian rapprochement, which itself was another bearish element for oil.

8) Finally, a key difference from 1973, Washington can tap its Strategic Petroleum Reserve to limit the impact on gasoline prices - and on President Joe Biden's approval rating. If oil prices surge because of tension in the Middle East, the White House is sure to tap the SPR. Although it's at its lowest level in 40 years, the reserve still has enough oil to deal with another crisis.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed within this article are the personal opinions of the author.

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)

from NDTV News- Special https://ift.tt/9SkKVaO
via IFTTT

Video: Bridge Washed Away, MLA Ziplines Across River In Flood-Hit Sikkim

In a sign of his commitment to his constituents, an MLA ziplined across a surging river in flood-hit Sikkim to take stock of the situation in a town that has been worst-hit by the floods. 

Samdup Lepcha is the legislator from the Lachen Mangan constituency. Chungthang, which saw parts of the 1200-MW Teesta III Dam being washed away, is part of his constituency and has borne the brunt of the flash floods that hit the state on Wednesday, resulting in the deaths of at least 53 people.

On Saturday, Mr Lepcha was leading a team from Pegong village in Mangan district to Chungthang, where residents have been complaining of inadequate relief efforts. The only log bridge leading to Chungthang has been washed away and, on the suggestion of his team, Mr Lepcha decided to take the only route available to them. 

A video shows the MLA suspended from two ropes as he is given a little push by security personnel. Mr Lepcha is seen smiling initially, but the danger becomes immediately apparent when he is seen dangling over the angry Chungthang River, swollen with floodwater, with just the temporary zipline holding him aloft. 

Sources said Mr Lepcha and his team, which also included the Deputy Inspector General of Police and Chungthang's Sub-Divisional Magistrate, were the first senior officials from the administration to reach the cut-off town since the flash floods hit.

Devastation

Residents of Chungthang said that when the South Lhonak Lake in the upper reaches burst its banks, flooding the Teesta River and sending floodwater rushing downhill, the existence of the Teesta III dam caused a whirlpool in the town, ravaging it. The floodgates and several other structures of the dam, which is the biggest in the state, were washed away by the river's fury. 

They complained that relief efforts in the town have not been up to the mark and claimed that none of the stranded residents were airlifted in the three days since the flood hit. 

A resident said two prominent villages close to the town, Lachen and Lachung, which are popular with tourists, have been completely cut off

Soldiers Among Dead

At least 53 people, including 8 soldiers, have been killed and over 140 people are missing since the flash floods hit the state on Wednesday. 

The Sikkim government has reported that 1,173 houses have been severely damaged and over 2,000 people have been rescued. At least 14 bridges have been submerged or washed away, disrupting connectivity to North Sikkim.

After a meeting chaired by Chief Minister Prem Singh Tamang on Friday, officials had said reopening road connectivity to Chungthang is being prioritised. Compensation of Rs 4 lakh has been announced for the families of the dead.

from NDTV News- Special https://ift.tt/JeiY0gl
via IFTTT

In Vehicles, Boats, Paragliders: How Hamas Breached Gaza Security Barrier

Hamas terrorists -- travelling in vehicles, boats and motorised paragliders -- breached Gaza's security barrier and attacked nearby Israeli towns and military posts, opening fire on residents and passersby.

Gun battles raged into the night as at least 70 people were reported killed in Israel, while Gaza authorities released a death count of 232 in the conflict's bloodiest escalation in years which also left many hundreds wounded on both sides.

The army said in the evening its forces were still engaged in live gun battles in 22 locations, in an ongoing operation labelled "Swords of Iron", as reservists were being called up.

"There are still 22 locations where we are engaging with terrorists that came into Israel, from the sea, from the land and from the air," said army spokesman Richard Hecht, adding that the Hamas attack included a "robust ground invasion".

Hamas earlier released images of several Israelis taken captive, and another Israeli army spokesman, Daniel Hagari, confirmed that "there are kidnapped soldiers and civilians.

"I can't give figures about them at the moment. It's a war crime committed by Hamas and they will pay the price."

"We are at war," Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told the stunned nation as the airforce pounded targets in the blockaded coastal enclave, including several residential tower blocks that were completely destroyed.

"The enemy will pay an unprecedented price," the veteran premier vowed after Hamas had launched its first such combined ground, air and sea offensive, half a century after the outbreak of the 1973 Arab-Israeli war.

The Islamist group started the multi-pronged attack around 6:30 am (0330 GMT) with thousands of rockets aimed as far as Tel Aviv and Jerusalem, some bypassing the Iron Dome defence system and hitting buildings.

"Send help, please!" one Israeli woman sheltering with her two-year-old child pleaded as terrorists outside opened fire and tried to break into their safe room, Israeli media reported.

Bodies were seen lying on the streets of Sderot near Gaza and inside cars, their windscreens shattered by bullets.

"I saw many bodies, of terrorists and civilians," one man who gave his name as Shlomi told AFP, standing beside covered corpses on a road near Gevim Kibbutz in southern Israel.

"So many bodies, so many bodies."

'Gates of hell'

Israeli army Major General Ghasan Alyan warned that Hamas had "opened the gates of hell".

An AFP journalist in Gaza saw smoke billowing from the remains of a residential tower which Gaza's interior ministry said contained 100 apartments and was completely destroyed.

Israel's military said it had warned residents to evacuate before targeting the multi-storey buildings used by Hamas.

The aid group Doctors without Borders said one strike had hit the enclave's Indonesian hospital and an ambulance outside Nasser Hospital in southern Gaza, causing multiple deaths.

As night fell, Israel's state-run electricity company cut the power supply to Gaza.

The escalation follows months of rising violence, mostly in the occupied West Bank, and tensions around Gaza's border and at contested holy sites in Jerusalem.

Hamas labelled its attack "Operation Al-Aqsa Flood" and called on "resistance fighters in the West Bank" as well as in "Arab and Islamic nations" to join the battle.

"We decided to put an end to all the crimes of the occupation (Israel)," said its armed wing, the Ezzedine al-Qassam Brigades, claiming to have fired more than 5,000 rockets.

Hecht said Israel had counted more than 3,000 incoming rockets though the day.

Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh claimed the group was on the "verge of a great victory and a clear conquest on the Gaza front".

"Enough is enough," he said in a televised address. "The cycle of intifadas (uprisings) and revolutions in the battle to liberate our land and our prisoners languishing in occupation prisons must be completed."

'Dangerous precipice'

Air raid sirens wailed across southern and central Israel, as well as in Jerusalem, where multiple incoming rockets were intercepted by air defence systems.

In Tel Aviv, a gaping hole was ripped into a building, with residents boarding a bus to seek safety in a hotel.

Rocket impacts left cars burning beneath residential buildings in the Israeli city of Ashkelon, north of Gaza.

Among the dead was the president of a regional council for Israeli communities northeast of Gaza, who was killed in a gun battle.

Schools will remain closed on Sunday, the start of the week in Israel.

The conflict sparked major disruption at Tel Aviv airport, with American Airlines, Emirates and Ryanair among carriers with cancelled flights.

Hamas took control of Gaza in 2007, leading to Israel's crippling blockade of the impoverished enclave of 2.3 million people.

Israel and Hamas have since fought several wars. The last major military exchange, in May, killed 34 Palestinians and one Israeli.

In northern Gaza on Saturday, hundreds of people fled their homes, carrying food and blankets, an AFP correspondent said.

Across the West Bank, including annexed east Jerusalem, three Palestinians were killed and around 80 wounded in clashes with Israeli forces and settlers, the Palestinian health ministry and Red Crescent Society said.

In Israeli-annexed east Jerusalem, some Palestinian residents cheered and blew their car horns as sirens blared.

Western capitals condemned the attacks by Hamas, which the United States, European Union and Israel consider a terrorist group.

But Hamas drew support from other foes of Israel, with Iran's supreme leader declaring he was "proud" and Lebanese militant group Hezbollah praising the "heroic operation".

The United States condemned the attacks by "Hamas terrorists" and vowed to ensure the key US ally has the means to defend itself.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen called the attack "terrorism in its most despicable form".

UN Middle East peace envoy Tor Wennesland warned of "a dangerous precipice" and called on all sides to "pull back from the brink".

Before Saturday's violence, at least 247 Palestinians, 32 Israelis and two foreigners had been killed this year, including combatants and civilians, according to Israeli and Palestinian officials.

from NDTV News- Special https://ift.tt/RVNrdw5
via IFTTT

"On Verge Of Great Victory": Hamas Chief After Israel Terror Strike

Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh said Saturday the Palestinian group was on the "verge of a great victory" after it launched a surprise attack on Israel from the Gaza Strip.

"We are on the verge of a great victory and a clear conquest on the Gaza front," Haniyeh said in a speech broadcast on Hamas-run Al-Aqsa television.

"Enough is enough, the cycle of intifadas (uprisings) and revolutions in the battle to liberate our (Palestinian) land and our prisoners languishing in occupation (Israeli) prisons must be completed."

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)

from NDTV News- Special https://ift.tt/cxJnvfG
via IFTTT

Viral: Aishwarya Rai Bachchan With Aditi In Pic Shared By Shefali Shah

Bollywood actresses including Aishwarya Rai Bachchan, Shefali Shah, and Aditi Rao Hydari took a stand against street harassment at a L'Oreal event, held at the iconic Gateway of India. It took place on October 4. The event was a testament to the cosmetic brand's unwavering commitment towards — Stand Up Against Street Harassment. Now, Shefali Shah has shared a picture on Instagram featuring herself, Aishwarya Rai Bachchan, Aditi Rao Hydari, Mandira Bedi and musician Manasi Scott from the event night. The divas – dressed in their very best – are showing their palms with the letter ‘D' written in black ink. FYI: The 5D's methodology is part of L'Oreal's initiative to combat street harassment.  The 5D's are: Direct, Delay, Document, Distract, and Delegate.  In the caption, Shefali Shah wrote, “#StopStreetHarassment Loreal India.”

Check out the post here: 

View this post on Instagram

A post shared by Shefali Shah (@shefalishahofficial)

L'Oreal India has also shared a bunch of glimpses from the event on Instagram. “Beneath the dark night sky, our brand L'Oreal Paris transformed the iconic Gateway of India into a #Gateway_to_Change. This event underscored L'Oreal Paris' unwavering commitment to its purpose - Stand Up Against Street Harassment. It was a remarkable gathering that saw the presence of industry stalwarts, esteemed leaders from government organisations, and notable celebrities. Together, we truly #CreateTheBeautyThatMovesTheWorld!” read the caption. 

View this post on Instagram

A post shared by L'Oréal India (@lorealindia)

L'Oreal Paris' initiative aims to raise awareness about street harassment and provide individuals with the tools to safely intervene through the 5D's methodology. The beauty brand also roped in Navya Naveli Nanda, granddaughter of Amitabh Bachchan and Jaya Bachchan, to shed light on it.

View this post on Instagram

A post shared by Yuvaa (@weareyuvaa)

Meanwhile, Navya Naveli Nanda and Aishwarya Rai Bachchan also represented L'Oreal recently at the Paris Fashion Week.

from NDTV News- Special https://ift.tt/0YqAxwD
via IFTTT

BJP Leader Announces Big Reward For Madhya Pradesh Polls. Rider Is...

BJP general secretary Kailash Vijayvargiya has announced a reward of Rs 51,000 for the concerned 'booth president' of the party if the Congress does not get a single vote from a particular polling booth in the coming Madhya Pradesh Assembly elections.

The senior Bharatiya Janata Party leader has been named as the ruling party's candidate from the Indore-I seat.

Speaking before a gathering of party workers in ward no 7 of Indore on Thursday, Vijayvargiya said, "We will give a reward of Rs 51,000 to the booth president where Congress does not get a single vote." Without naming anyone, he said his rival had distributed around two lakh sarees saying that the people of the area were his family.

"I don't want to go into that, but the people of the ward are good and they will ensure that it (the Congress) will not get any vote from here as it has not done any development work in the constituency," he said.

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)

from NDTV News- Special https://ift.tt/vxgTeaf
via IFTTT

Search For Lost Earring Leads To Discovery Of Viking Treasure In Norway

After a man made a record-breaking gold discovery in Norway with a metal detector, a family in the country made another unprecedented discovery with the same device. The family was searching for a lost earring in their garden when they instead unearthed artefacts dating back more than a millennium.

According to the BBC, the Aasvik family dug up a bowl-shaped buckle and another item that appear to be part of a Viking-era burial. Experts believe the artefacts were used in the ninth-century burial of a woman on the small island of Jomfruland. The discovery was made under a large tree in the centre of the family's garden on the island, off Norway's south coast.

"We congratulate the family who found the first safe Viking-time find at Jomfruland," the Cultural Heritage of Vestfold and Telemark County Council wrote in a Facebook post.

Live Science reported that the new discovery of what seems to be the grave of an aristocratic Viking woman now suggests that the cairns were, in fact, made by Vikings.

The larger artefact found in the grave is an oval-shaped brooch that would have been worn by a woman in a halter dress to fasten the shoulder straps at the front, Vibeke Lia, an archaeologist with the Vestfold and Telemark County Council, told Live Science. Such brooches were commonly found in the graves of Viking women, and their style was characteristic of the ninth century, according to the news outlet.

"They come in pairs, one for each strap, so there should be another one there," she said.

from NDTV News- Special https://ift.tt/cQgrt2J
via IFTTT