The coming by-polls in West Bengal are expected to be bellwether for which way the political winds are blowing in Mamata Banerjee's West Bengal after the massive protests over the rape-murder of a Kolkata doctor. The protest, strongly backed by the urban middle class, has shaken the state and despite protesters' claims that it was apolitical, it had received significant support from the opposition.
By-polls are due in six seats in various parts of the state - their geography and demography are expected to be strong indicators of the political trend.
The seats include Naihati, the urban centre close to Kolkata, the minority dominated Haroa, Taldangra with a significant tribal population, Sitai with a chunk of minority and Rajbanshi vote, the tea garden seat of north Bengal. Madiahat and Medinipur.
Many believe that the results now could throw light on whether the RG Kar protests will impact future elections. The Opposition BJP, which has been trying to dislodge Mamata Banerjee for years, is hoping for an upset.
Of the six seats going to polls, five were held by the Trinamool and one by the BJP. While the Trinamool has claimed it will win all six, anything below five will be seen as a loss. For the BJP, winning Madarihat will be a confidence booster after its performance fell in the region during the Lok Sabha election.
Senior Trinamool Congress Leader Kumal Ghosh said the Opposition "will try their best to misguide and confuse the voters by misusing this RG Kar issue".
"But I think we are confident that the voters will realise the facts. They know the regime of the CPIM, they know the happenings in the BJP-ruled states and they know that within 24 hours, Kolkata Police have arrested the criminal, the main rape and murder accused," he added.
In the BJP stronghold of North Bengal, where Trinamool clawed its way back in the Lok Sabha elections, Sitai is situated near the Bangladesh border and the Madarihat seat is largely a tea garden seat and the only one among the six that was held by the BJP.
The Left, which the Trinamool accuses of hijacking the RG Kar protests, is fighting alone this time and not with the Congress as it has done in the past elections.
"This time in by-elections, since it was due in ten seats and four had already happened, six are taking place," said senior CPM leader Md Salim. "Time was limited so discussions could not be held because of the change of guard in the party's state unit," he added.
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